Conceptual

I guess the result of Venezuelan exodus into the Colombian labor markets. The economic and public drama from inside the Venezuela caused among the most significant migratory exoduses during the present decades: more cuatro billion Venezuelans left its country and near to 1.8 billion arrived in Colombia. I reveal that an increase in step 1 p.p from work escort in Lincoln also provide owed this new migratory circulate caused a decrease inside the hourly wages into the Colombia of 0.4% and you will an awful effect of 0.step one p.p. toward work speed out of lowest-skilled professionals. New get rid of for the wages are better for men, low-skilled and you can relaxed workers.

Addition

New Venezuelan migratory exodus the most crucial attacks off pressed migration global: on 4.5 billion of Venezuelans leftover its country and gone elsewhere Footnote step one (UNHCR 2019). The most popular place to go for departing Venezuelan migrants is actually Colombia. According to certified statistics, there have been almost 1.8 billion out of Venezuelans surviving in Colombia for the 2019, through the fresh new Venezuelan economic and you will governmental drama, hence stands for a rise in the fresh display of Venezuelans residing in Colombia relative to the brand new federal populace regarding 0.07% into the 2015 to 3.6% everything into the 2019.

It high bout of migration is short for a challenge so you’re able to policymakers exactly who attempt to discover and you may quantify the possibility monetary and personal effects of such a large inflow from immigrants, especially for host countries instance Colombia.

Inside report, I mine the fresh new Venezuelan exodus to help you comprehend the migratory episode’s effect on this new Colombian work markets. I use a distinctions-in-differences methods and you can perform my studies by the due to the level of visibility across the Colombian departments to this exogenous labor likewise have wonder, pre and post 2016 (i.age. 2013-2019). Inside 2016 a life threatening and unforeseen migratory increase away from Venezuelans so you can Colombia taken place in the event the limitations between them places was in fact reopened once almost a year away from closure.

My personal estimates suggest that this new intensification of the migratory circulate away from Venezuelans originating in mid-2016 produced a critical get rid of within the aggregate wages along with the newest a position rate away from lowest-skilled workers when you look at the Colombia. A boost in 1 payment section (p.p.) of your labor pool as a result of the inflow from Venezuelans made a great 0.4% decrease in earnings and an excellent 0.1 p.p. decrease in a position to have lowest-skilled pros; it effect on employment portray a decline of 0.18% according to the common a position speed out-of reasonable-skilled Colombian pros when you look at the 2015, before the Venezuelan exodus. Once i guess these types of consequences for Colombian departments on the border with Venezuela (Los angeles Guajira and Norte de- Santander), results train the declines in wages and you may employment for everybody experts was indeed whenever ten% and you may step 3.cuatro p.p. (an excellent average work), correspondingly, pursuing the border is lso are-established.

So you can estimate the outcome regarding migration within these a few edging divisions, I construct a running class playing with about three departments out-of Colombia one weren’t firmly influenced by immigration and showed, typically, comparable manner with regards to work industry parameters together with equivalent socio-market characteristics before the border lso are-starting. To include robustness to these abilities, We use a synthetic Control Means and estimate the same variations-in-distinctions estimations given different combinations off departments from Colombia given that handle teams.

I additionally imagine heterogeneous consequences because of the intercourse, level of degree, work formality and you may given whether the everyone was locals or perhaps not. I’ve found one to, within the aggregate, the new destruction inside wages is actually large for men compared to people and much healthier getting lower-skilled professionals. More over, the new decline in wages was deeper for casual workers however, truth be told there are not important differences when considering residents and you will low-natives; really the only exception would be the fact I have found a statistically extreme increase on informality speed among non-neighbors in the Colombia.